GOA Lawsuit Path to the Supreme Court

Zion Patriot,

With the GOA lawsuit now on the table, many gun owners are asking: How exactly does this play out? Here’s a clear roadmap of the legal process ahead—and the possible curveballs.

1️⃣ Filing and Initial Proceedings (District Court)

  • Lawsuits start in a federal district court within the Fifth Circuit.
  • The plaintiffs (GOA and others) filed their complaint in the Northern District of Texas.
  • The DOJ (defending the ATF) will likely:
    • File a motion to dismiss (arguing there’s no standing, no cause of action, or the NFA is constitutional).
    • If the judge denies dismissal, both sides will file briefs (“motions for summary judgment”).
    • The court will hold a hearing and then issue a district court opinion.

✅ Outcome at this stage:
Either:

  • The judge grants an injunction in favor of the plaintiffs, or
  • The judge rules for the government and dismisses the complaint.

2️⃣ Appeal to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals

  • Whoever loses in district court can appeal as of right to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.
  • A 3-judge panel will:
    • Accept legal briefs and possibly hold oral argument.
    • Review the district court’s decision de novo (fresh review).
    • Issue an appellate opinion affirming or reversing the lower court.

✅ Outcome here:
If the Fifth Circuit rules the NFA unconstitutional (or upholds it), the losing party (almost certainly the DOJ if they lose) has options.

3️⃣ Petition for Rehearing En Banc

  • The losing party can request rehearing en banc, asking all active Fifth Circuit judges to review the panel decision.
  • En banc rehearings are rare but more likely in big constitutional cases, especially if the panel opinion conflicts with other circuits or prior Supreme Court rulings.
  • The Fifth Circuit might:
    • Deny rehearing, letting the panel decision stand.
    • Grant rehearing en banc and issue a new opinion.

✅ Outcome here:
If the Fifth Circuit en banc agrees the NFA is unconstitutional, it creates a massive conflict with existing precedent.

4️⃣ Petition for Certiorari to the Supreme Court

  • The DOJ will file a cert petition asking the Supreme Court to hear the case.
  • The plaintiffs could also file a cross-petition if the Fifth Circuit narrowed relief.
  • SCOTUS receives ~8,000 petitions per year and grants about ~70–80.

✅ Factors that dramatically increase chances of review:

  • A circuit split (if other circuits uphold the NFA).
  • A ruling invalidating major federal gun laws.
  • National importance (this absolutely qualifies).

✅ In this scenario:
The Supreme Court almost certainly would grant cert because:

  • It is a direct challenge to the NFA.
  • It is an issue of first impression.
  • It has enormous constitutional stakes.

5️⃣ Supreme Court Briefing and Oral Argument

  • Both sides file full merits briefs and reply briefs.
  • Amicus briefs flood in (every major gun rights and gun control group, dozens of states, etc.).
  • The Court schedules oral argument.
  • After hearing argument, they conference and assign an opinion writer.

✅ Timeline:

  • From cert grant to decision: ~6–12 months.

6️⃣ Supreme Court Decision

  • The Court issues an opinion.
  • Possible outcomes:
    • Affirm the Fifth Circuit: the NFA’s registration requirements for untaxed items are unconstitutional.
    • Reverse: uphold the NFA’s provisions.
    • Partial: limit the ruling to specific aspects.
  • The Court’s ruling would set nationwide precedent, binding all lower courts and the ATF.

🛠️ What if DOJ/ATF Settle?

Settlement is absolutely possible, and here’s what that could look like, how it would work, and what it would mean.

🎯 Why Would DOJ/ATF Consider Settling?

They might fear a Supreme Court precedent striking down the entire NFA for untaxed items, which would:

  • Blow up almost 90 years of regulatory practice.
  • Invite more lawsuits challenging machine gun regs, GCA 1968, etc.
  • Embolden challenges to every federal gun law.

A settlement could be a way to limit damage by:

  • Avoiding a binding appellate decision.
  • Containing relief only to the plaintiffs.

🤝 How Would a Settlement Happen?

Settlements in civil cases are negotiated between the parties (here, DOJ lawyers and GOA’s legal team).
They would:

  1. Enter negotiations.
  2. Draft a consent decree or stipulated dismissal with conditions.
  3. Submit it to the district court judge for approval.

📝 What Might a Settlement Include?

Potential components:
✅ DOJ agrees not to enforce the NFA registration requirement only against:

  • GOA members
  • Co-plaintiffs (e.g., Palmetto State Armory, Silencer Shop customers)
    ✅ DOJ agrees not to pursue criminal charges for possessing untaxed SBRs/SBSs/suppressors among these groups.
    ✅ DOJ admits no liability and no admission of unconstitutionality.
    ✅ Both sides agree to dismiss the lawsuit.

This would not create any precedent.
It would only apply to the plaintiffs and defined parties.

⛔ What a Settlement Would Not Do

  • It would not invalidate the NFA nationwide.
  • It would not apply to everyone else.
  • It would not preclude another plaintiff (like FPC or NRA) from filing a separate suit.
  • It would not stop a future administration from resuming enforcement.

⚖️ What Would Happen Next?

  • GOA members would be protected (depending on settlement terms).
  • Everyone else would still be subject to the NFA.
  • Other lawsuits (like FPC’s) would likely continue, unless those groups also settled.
  • Congress could still legislate (e.g., reimpose a tax).
  • A future administration could withdraw the settlement or reinterpret enforcement.

🔥 Strategic Risks of Settlement

From the DOJ’s perspective, settlement buys time and avoids precedent.
From GOA’s perspective, settlement would:

  • Give real, immediate relief to their members.
  • Avoid the risk of a Supreme Court loss.

But:

  • It would not kill the NFA.
  • It would not help non-members.
  • It would risk splitting the pro-2A coalition if FPC and others keep fighting.

🕒 How Likely is Settlement?

It’s possible—but given the stakes, not especially likely right now.
The DOJ usually prefers to fight cases through appeals rather than set any precedent that the NFA is unenforceable.
If they feel the Fifth Circuit or Supreme Court will definitely rule against them, settlement might become more attractive later.

🧭 If You’re Watching for Settlement Clues

Watch for:
✅ Motions to stay proceedings for settlement talks.
✅ Joint status reports indicating negotiations.
✅ Consent decrees filed with the court.
✅ DOJ statements about “enforcement discretion.”

⏳ Approximate Timeframe

Realistically:

  • District Court ruling: ~6–12 months.
  • Fifth Circuit panel decision: ~6–12 months.
  • En banc rehearing: adds ~3–6 months if granted.
  • Cert petition and SCOTUS review: ~9–15 months.

Total timeline to SCOTUS ruling:
~2.5 to 4 years.

This is very possible – if we look at Bruen vs. New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, the case was originally filed in February, 2018 and the Supreme Court made their ruling in June 2022.

🕒 Timeline of Bruen

February 2018

  • Plaintiffs (NYSRPA with Robert Nash and Brandon Koch) filed suit in the Northern District of New York challenging the “proper cause” requirement under the Sullivan Act. The district court dismissed the case.

August 2020

  • The Second Circuit affirmed the dismissal, upholding New York’s discretionary “may-issue” licensing regime.

April 26, 2021

  • The Supreme Court granted certiorari, narrowing the question to whether New York’s denial of concealed-carry licenses violated the Second Amendment.

November 3, 2021

  • Oral arguments were presented before the Court.

June 23, 2022

  • In a landmark 6–3 decision authored by Justice Clarence Thomas, the Supreme Court held that New York’s discretionary “proper cause” requirement violated the Second and Fourteenth Amendments, mandating that states must allow concealed carry for “ordinary self-defense needs” under a “shall-issue” mode

Bottom line:

✅ A settlement could stop enforcement for plaintiffs.
✅ It would not strike down the NFA.
✅ It would be a temporary patch, not a lasting solution.
✅ In the meantime, any district court injunctions will only apply to the plaintiffs and their members, not the entire country.
✅ This is not going to be fast.
✅ It is, however, exactly the right vehicle to get a definitive Supreme Court ruling.

Whether this goes all the way to the Supreme Court or is resolved sooner, it’s the most serious constitutional challenge the NFA has faced in decades—and every gun owner should be watching closely.

Stay tuned. We’ll keep you updated every step of the way as this historic fight unfolds.

2A News Gun Control HPA & Short Act in HR1 Politics