What’s Next for the HPA and the SHORT Acts?

The Senate Parliamentarian’s ruling may have gutted the Hearing Protection Act (HPA) and the SHORT Act from the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), but it hasn’t ended the fight to dismantle the National Firearms Act (NFA). If anything, it’s clarified exactly where gun rights activists and lawmakers must focus next.

There are four paths forward. Each comes with tradeoffs, risks, and potential long-term consequences.

1. Override the Parliamentarian

The simplest path on paper is also the least likely: the Vice President (as President of the Senate) or the Presiding Officer could simply ignore the Parliamentarian’s ruling and allow the provisions to remain. This has happened before—most notably in the 1970s when Nelson Rockefeller overruled the Parliamentarian on budget points of order.

But overriding her is politically explosive. It would trigger accusations of breaking Senate norms, invite procedural chaos, and likely fracture the fragile majority coalition needed to pass the broader reconciliation package.

Reality: No serious effort is underway to pursue this option. Even if some Republicans demanded it, Senator Thune has shown no appetite and has on multiple occasions said he would not do this..

2. Replace the Parliamentarian

The next option is replacing Elizabeth MacDonough outright. The Parliamentarian serves at the pleasure of the Senate Majority Leader, who can remove and replace her at any time without a vote. This is exactly what happened in 2001, when Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott fired Parliamentarian Robert Dove after rulings that blocked Republican priorities.

While technically easier than an override, the optics are arguably worse. Firing the Parliamentarian mid-bill would be seen as a partisan escalation. Senator Thune has already said publicly he will not pursue this.

Reality: Not likely without a dramatic shift in leadership or public pressure. And again, Senator Thune has publicly stated he will not do this.

3. Rewrite the HPA and SHORT Act Provisions

This is the most realistic next move—and it’s already being discussed. Lawmakers could attempt to rewrite the language so it focuses purely on the $200 tax stamp and administrative fees, rather than broader deregulation.

But here’s the strategic fork in the road:

• Reduce the Tax: This is the most likely approach to pass procedural muster. But simply lowering the tax leaves the rest of the NFA intact: the registry, the paperwork, the transfer restrictions. Politically, it’s a half measure. Legally, it doesn’t undermine the NFA’s regulatory nature. This is not the preferred option in our opinion.
• Remove the Tax Entirely: This is the smarter long-game play. If the tax disappears, the government’s main justification for the NFA (that it is a revenue measure) evaporates. Courts relying on Sonzinsky and other precedents could find the remaining regulatory structure much harder to defend under Bruen.

Either approach requires carefully crafted text, a fresh Parliamentarian review, and limited time to pull it off.

Reality: Expect this to be the primary focus in the coming weeks.

4. Replace the Senate Majority Leader

While not on most people’s radar, it’s worth understanding that if the Parliamentarian serves at the pleasure of the Majority leader, the Senate Majority Leader serves at the pleasure of the Senate majority. If enough Republican senators lose confidence in Senator Thune’s willingness to fight, they can hold a leadership election and choose someone else.

It wouldn’t require a public vote or Democratic support. Just a majority of Republican senators in a closed-door meeting.

Is this likely? No—at least not yet. But as grassroots frustration grows and Thune continues to rule out every other option, the pressure could mount.

Reality: A long shot. But not impossible.

Conclusion: The Fight Isn’t Over

The Parliamentarian’s ruling may have been a setback, but it also clarified the stakes. Gun owners and Second Amendment advocates now face a choice:

• Accept procedural defeat.
• Push for incremental tax cuts.
• Lay the groundwork to gut the NFA’s constitutional defense.
• Or demand leadership willing to fight.

The butcher’s knife may have carved up the OBBB, but it didn’t end the movement to dismantle the NFA. In fact, it may have made that movement sharper than ever.

Stay tuned. The next moves will tell us who is serious about securing your rights—and who never was.